Which provinces flipped for Marcos or Robredo in 2022?

MANILA, Philippines – The 2022 election saw a rematch between Leni Robredo and Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. after the former defeated the latter by a hairline during the 2016 vice presidential race.

This year, according to unofficial, partial results from the Commission on Elections (Comelec) transparency server, Marcos Jr. – the presumptive winner of the 2022 presidential race – received more than double Robredo’s votes. With 97.84% of precincts reporting as of 9:26 pm on Wednesday, May 11, Marcos Jr. received 31,091,482 votes, while Robredo received 14,815,276.

In 2016, Robredo received 14,418,817 votes, while Marcos got 14,155,344.

Marcos Jr. is the first majority president since his father, the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, was topppled in the 1986 EDSA revolution. Provincial breakdowns of votes show that overwhelming support for Marcos came from several areas across the country.

What changed? How did the provinces vote in 2022 compared to 2016?

Below is a chart of the change in voter share per province for Marcos and Robredo. A positive change in voter share means the chosen candidate gained more votes in the given province in 2022, while a negative change in voter share means the candidate lost votes during the same period. Data showed that Marcos significantly gained more votes from more areas in 2022 while Robredo lost votes from most areas.

Just like in 2016, Marcos dominated Luzon, including the “Solid North” and vote-rich Metro Manila, but excluding Robredo’s home region Bicol. Robredo also won in Quezon Province and in Northern and Eastern Samar, as well as provinces in Western Visayas.

What’s new in 2022 is that Marcos also won’t over every province in Mindanao, except for two provinces where he placed second. These were Sarangani, where Manny Pacquiao was leading by 82,246 votes, and Lanao del Sur, where Faisal Mangondato was leading by 35,428 votes.

Marcos saw a huge lead in Caraga, garnering 65.35% of votes against Robredo’s 19.85%, as well as in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslin Mindanao (BARMM), garnering 59.17% of votes against Robredo’s 25.40%.

In terms of the change in voter share, Marcos suffered the biggest loss in Manila, bailiwick of Isko Moreno and the second most vote-rich city. While Marcos still won in the capital city, it was a close fight between him and the Manila mayor – Marcos led by 60,789 votes, accounting for 40.90% of total votes against Moreno’s 33.92%.

Robredo did not gain new ground in 2022, and instead lost areas that voted for her in 2016. She lost the support of vote-rich Cebu, once known as “anti-Marcos country,” after Marcos defeated her by almost a million votes. The Garcia-led One Cebu party had earlier endorsed Marcos for president.

Another vote-rich province that flipped for Marcos is Batangas, where the presumptive president got 46.35% of votes against Robredo’s 42.25%.

She also lost the support of Tarlac, where Marcos led by 135,999 votes and where local officials from the Nationalist People’s Coalition endorsed him. Organizers of a Uniteam rally in Tarlac City even put up a tent right in front of the statue of late opposition senator Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr., covering its face.

She also lost the support of Samar, where Marcos led by 159,856 votes and where Governor Reynolds Michael Tan promised a win for the Uniteam tandem in the province.

Bacolod City is the only area in Western Visayas that flipped for Marcos in 2022, but it was a close fight – as of 9:26 pm on Wednesday, Marcos was leading by 9,128 votes, garnering 43.38% of all votes against Robredo’s 40.12%.

In terms of the change in voter share, Robredo suffered the biggest loss in Camiguin, where she got 38,030 votes in 2016 but only 4,591 in 2022, followed by Misamis Occidental, where she got 143,402 votes in 2016 but only 32,804 in 2022.

Robredo also won by a landslide in Sorsogon this year, garnering 74.09% of total votes. 2016 vice presidential candidate Chiz Escudero, who currently serves as the province’s governor, won in Sorsogon in 2016.

Despite not gaining new ground, a number of areas still saw an increase in Robredo voters in 2022. These included all Metro Manila cities except Manila as well as nearby provinces Bulacan and Rizal. These also included Bicol provinces Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes. Even Ilocos Norte saw a slight increase in Robredo’s numbers, from 3,704 votes in 2016 to 10,043 in 2022.

Pre-election surveys predicted a landslide win for Marcos Jr., whose Pulse Asia ratings peaked at 60%. Robredo’s ratings had peaked at 24%.

You can view Rappler’s interactive map that shows regional and provincial breakdowns of votes here:

– with reports from Bingbong Recto/Rappler.com

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