Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to unearth value betting opportunities and shares his thoughts for day one of the Cheltenham festival (and supporting cards) below…
It’s Cheltenham Tuesday (March 15th) and Andrew has three bets on day one of the festival as well as two at Sedgefield and Newcastle. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
MIGHTY POTTER (system – Cheltenham festival, Mullins & Elliott, fresh horses)
Since 2016, simply backing all Cheltenham festival runners trained by Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott who were returning from a break of at least eight weeks would have found 19 winners from 106 runners for a profit of £97.78 to a £1 level stake at SP. Gordon Elliott’s MIGHTY POTTER has career form of 1131 (3-4), with the sole defeat by just over one length in a Garde 1 contest that was not run to suit. He’s been rested since Christmas and can reward each-way support in the Cheltenham festival opener.
YOU SAY NOTHING (system – Christian Williams long travellers)
Trainer Christian Williams has a 30 from 103 record with horses traveling more than 250 miles to the races and backing them all would have returned a profit of £15.05 to a £1 level stake at SP. His Sedgefield runners are six from 14 (+£8.15) and YOU SAY NOTHNG, one of three for the yard today, can get the ball rolling in this handicap chase. He also saddles POWERFUL POSITION in the 4.30 TIK TOK in the 5.10.
ONE MORE FLEURIE (system – time of year)
There are plenty who can be fancied in the Ultima Handicap Chase including ONE MORE FLEURIE, who looks to be a spring horse. Three of his four career wins have come in March or April, the other on February 26th, and this 100-1 shot could outrun his odds. He pulled up when last seen but that was in the Ladbrokes Trophy and the drying ground will suit.
BRAZIL (system – Cheltenham festival hurdles, won easily last time out)
Hurdlers who win their prep race ‘easily’ or ‘comfortably’ have done extremely well at the last five Cheltenham festivals, landing 16 of their 70 starts (22.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £61.55 (the expected number of winners was only 7.8). There are plenty of qualifiers today including Fred Winter hope BRAZIL, who looks sure to improve for the switch to handicap compnay. I also like Too Friendly and HMS Seahorse in this race but want a few on my side for Placepot purposes.
PULSE OF POPPY (system – Mick Appleby stable switchers)
Mick Appleby has a 82 from 471 record (17.4%) record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers and backing them blind would have returned a huge profit of £293.42 to a £1 level stake at SP. PULSE OF POPPY might be able to score on her first outing since leaving Kieran Cotter in Ireland.
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