Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Monday Picks – Feb 21st

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew’s stats-based approach to betting finds regular winners, often at big prices, and he shares his latest findings below.

Andrew was in good form at the weekend and he starts the new week with three selections at Carlisle and Dundalk on Monday, February 21st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:

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CARLISLE 1.50

BATTLE OF TORO (system – James Moffatt stable switchers)

I have a great deal of time for trainer Jimmy Moffatt – we could have backed all his runners in recent years (since the spring of 2016) and made a profit pf £77.60. He also does extremely well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with eight of the last 43 qualifiers for a profit of £43.00. BATTLE OF TORO won twice on the Flat in France for Andre Fabre and, though showing little in three runs for the Crisford stable last year, is worth an interest on his debut for new connections.

DUNDALK 3.15

PILLAR (system – Dundalk 5f handicaps, middle draw)

Since racing resumed after lockdown in early summer of 2020, backing all horses drawn between stalls 3 and 6 in 5f handicaps at Dundalk would have found 17 winners from 116 bets for a profit of £43.08 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.31). The inside rail is rarely the place to be at Dundalk putting those drawn in stalls 1 and 2 at a disadvantage and those drawn higher than stall 6 tend to get caught wide and have to cover too much ground. Of today’s four qualifiers I prefer PILLAR, the likely pace angle, despite the fact that Sorcha Woods has got to ride a winner here. She’s ridden three handicap winners on turf and her 28 handicap rides at Dundalk have mostly been big prices (the expected number of winners was only 1.21), including second places at 80-1, 40-1, 28-1 and 20-1.

CARLISLE 4.05

EQUUS DREAMER (system – Kim Bailey chasers, first run after a wind operation)

In-form Kim Bailey has a nine from 34 record with chasers returning from wind surgery for a small profit of £2.94 to £1 level stakes at SP. The handicappers running in Class 3 or better company are five from 14 (+£7.71), with three of the beaten horses finishing second. EQUUS DREAMER will appreciate the return to a right-handed track after his modest fourth Bangor and found only Corach Rambler too good on his latest course visit.

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