Bayan Muna, Buhay, 9 others in danger of losing reelection in 2022 party-list race

Meanwhile, around 16 new party-list groups are seen to enter the House of Representatives in the 19th Congress, based on an initial computation using partial, unofficial results

MANILA, Philippines – With 177 party-list groups vying for just 63 seats in the House of Representatives, and with a complicated formula for assigning these seats to the winning groups, nothing is certain in the 2022 party-list election until the Commission on Elections (Comelec) completes the canvassing of votes.

However, based on an initial computation using partial, unofficial results with 98.17% of precincts reporting as of Wednesday, May 11, 12:05 pm, around 11 incumbent party-list groups are at risk of not winning seats in the incoming 19th Congress.

Among these groups are longtime Congress members Bayan Muna, Buhay Hayaang Yumabong, and the Trade Union Congress Party (TUCP).

If this computation holds in the final canvass, Bayan Muna – which won three seats in 2019 – would not have party-list seats for the first time since 2001, Buhay since 2003, and TUCP since 2009. (See the House roster of legislators. )

Also in danger are notable groups like Anak Mindanao or AMIN (in the House from 2003 to 2010, and since 2013), A Teacher (since 2007), Magdalo (since 2013), OFW Family (since 2019), and Rebolusyonaryong Alyansang Makabansa or RAM (since 2019).

Reelectionist groups Tingog Sinirangan and Sagip might garner one more House seat each, to add to the seat they won in 2019. Meanwhile, five groups that won two seats in 2019 might only get one this year: Ang Probinsyano, Cibac, Marino, Probinsyano Ako , and 1-Pacman.

Around 16 new groups might enter the House for the first time. These include second-placer 1-Rider Partylist, Pagtibayin at Palaguin ang Pangkabuhayang Pilipino (4PS), Tutok to Win, Agimat, Pinuno, Bicol Saro, and Ako Ilokano Ako (AIA).

Meanwhile, around 40 party-list groups are likely to be reelected, including topnotcher ACT-CIS.

See the results of this possible computation in the table below. To reiterate, the final seat assignments will be known at the end of Comelec’s official canvass for the party-list elections.

How party-list seats are assigned

Article VI, Section 5(2) of the 1987 Constitution mandates that 20% of the total House membership be assigned to the party list. Given the 253 seats for district representatives – which is 80% of the House – this leaves 63 seats for party-list legislators.

The assignment of party-list seats follows the rules in the 2009 Supreme Court decision Banat vs. Comelec. Each winning party-list group can get up to a maximum of three seats.

In the first round, the groups that get at least 2% of the total party-list votes get one guaranteed seat.

Applying this to the partial unofficial 2022 party-list results so far, at least six groups would have one sure seat: ACT-CIS, 1-Rider, Tingog Sinirangan, 4PS, Ako Bicol, and Sagip.

Next, these “2-percenters” may earn additional seats by multiplying its vote share with the remaining seats not yet assigned at this point.

The resulting product will not be rounded up: only the whole number (or the digit at the left of the decimal point) will be used. For instance, if the resulting figure is 0.95121, this will not be rounded to 1, and that group will not earn an additional seat.

For the 2022 race so far, with 57 seats left to be filled, following this computation, ACT-CIS is supposed to get three more seats. But since there is a three-seat cap, it will only get two more. The other five “2-percenters” will earn one more seat.

Finally, the groups with less than 2% of the total votes, in order of the votes they received, will win one seat each until all the remaining party-list seats are filled.

At this point in the 2022 elections so far, around 50 groups might benefit from this windfall.

We will update this story once the official canvass is completed. –

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